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A recent working paper from George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government researchers, released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, highlights the unintended consequences of well-intentioned public policy. Associate Professor Catherine Maclean, Distinguished University Professor John Earle, and doctoral student Sungbin Park, along with Rahi Abouk of William Paterson University, find that COVID-19 vaccine mandates for health care workers in certain U.S. states exacerbated the preexisting labor shortage in the health care sector.
By directly comparing the rates of entry and exit in the health care industry, Schar School researchers find that exits from the health care industry rose by a full percentage point in states with an active vaccine mandate, a nearly 20% increase in the rate of leaving the industry. With a 6% drop in the probability of working in the health care industry, vaccine mandates can be directly linked to a 536,000-person decline in employment in health care occupations.
This is not to say that the vaccine mandates failed in their stated goals: The astounding development speed and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines ended the worst pandemic in recorded human history. By increasing vaccination rates and making hospitals safer for health care workers, the industry also did see a rise in those entering the profession—just not enough to offset those leaving.
“Our research highlights that well-intentioned policies can have unintended consequences,” said co-author Sungbin Park. “Policymakers should be mindful of these complexities and explore diverse strategies to mitigate potential adverse effects.”
When asked what lessons policymakers can learn going forward, Catherine Maclean said: “In future pandemics, governments could consider supportive policies rather than punitive policies such as mandates. Supportive policies might involve providing paid sick leave to receive health care (such as vaccines), promoting correct information about vaccine effectiveness and safety, offering financial incentives for vaccinations, and having on-site vaccination stations. This supportive approach might encourage vaccine uptake without negative consequences, such as dissuading people from working in health care (or other industries).”