In This Story
When Justin Gest, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, arrived at Parem Island to interview the local elder about climate migration, the young men were missing.
There had been reports of poachers near Parem’s vital reserve crops, and the men were giving chase; the villagers depend on those crops for their survival. Parem, a small island in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), is on the front lines of what Gest calls “slow-onset climate change”—a creeping terror of sea level rise. As the tide begins to wash away the low-lying taro patches, food becomes increasingly precious.
A World Bank study projects that 216 million people worldwide will be forcibly displaced by climate change before 2050, including many living in Micronesia. Understanding how climate change factors into the decision to migrate is key to predicting whether that displacement will be a trickle —or a tidal wave.
Through extensive interviews and a novel survey, Gest’s team finds that climate change weighs extraordinarily little in a person’s decision to migrate. Instead, people are primarily influenced by a basic human need: family.
Because Micronesia has a unique treaty with the United States that allows for open emigration, it provides an exciting research opportunity. By studying a country with the fewest migration barriers, the conclusions may be applicable to other at-risk countries.
Micronesians with family members already in the United States were 25.9 percentage points more likely to plan a move. For those without family abroad, they were 13.1 percentage points less likely to plan a move. Extended family networks in Micronesia often keep people home, but those same obligations sometimes compel Micronesians to leave. The Micronesians have a “leaky roof,” Gest said. An inconvenience, but not one that causes you to abandon your home.
Public Policy doctoral student and coauthor Scott Drinkall highlighted that the team’s work would not have succeeded without the help of Micronesian researcher Kapiolani Micky, director of community health and outreach with Micronesian Islander Community. Drinkall first met Micky while working with migrant communities in Oregon, a connection that led to a cascade of opportunity.
“Working with Professor Gest meant I learned that research really does require on-the-ground conversations, looking for nuance, asking questions, and getting to know people and their stories,” said Drinkall, stressing the importance of building and maintaining that trust with the local community. “Without that, the complexity and context can be lost.”
Back in Virginia, Associate Professor Lucas Núñez conducted quantitative analysis for the project, providing valuable data the FSM government can use in navigating the complex push and pull factors they face.
“Our integration of our two types of evidence/methods make the most of each,” said Nunez. “In some instances, our quantitative data helps show the generalizability of our interview data; in other cases, our interview data helps contextualize and explain our quantitative evidence.”
The team’s findings may ease any international fears about a tidal wave of climate migration. However, Gest provides an important caveat:
“This research does not mean, however, that countries should not offer refuge to people who have lost their habitat due to climate change induced environmental disasters. In rapid onset disasters, these are the most vulnerable people on earth. It is our responsibility not just as carbon producers, but as human beings to help our fellow global citizens.”
“Ebb and Flow: The Prospects and Constraints of Climate Migrants” in the October 2024 edition of PS: Political Science & Politics